It’s been a while since I’ve talked about “the big picture.” But lately, a great many things have taken on the unmistakable scent of a storm about to break — so let me just speak freely, stream-of-consciousness style.
1 — The real force driving gold’s wild surge is this: the world’s chaos risk is growing at an explosive rate. Whenever gold experiences a short-term spike, it’s essentially because the world’s most powerful shadow capital is demanding extreme security. In their eyes, at this particular moment, no other asset class is as stable and reassuring as gold — this ancient, traditional precious metal.
Tesla has made no strategic errors. Unlike domestic automakers, Tesla continues to focus on the Model Y and Model 3 with minor refreshes. Remarkably, their vehicle designs remain relevant even after a decade. Tesla channels its primary effort into autonomous driving and core EV technology — the “three electrics” (battery, motor, and electronic control system) — while Chinese manufacturers pour resources into releasing new models every year. Each new model costs upwards of a billion RMB to develop, yet sells fewer than 50,000 units annually. NIO, Xpeng, and others are prime examples.
1 — Ever since I navigated my own share of rises and falls to build a family and a career, I’ve rarely kept close ties with friends who are too far apart from me in financial standing.
They may be wonderful people — but the gap in mindset that comes from operating at different levels only keeps widening. By the time I’m already laying the groundwork for the next phase of my ventures, some of them are still mired in persistent pessimism, world-weariness, and resignation.
The Fed is heading toward rate cuts. Based on where the dollar index currently sits, prices should be at floor levels — giving the dollar a window to capitalize and stimulate a sluggish economy. Energy and raw material prices have also started moving. As the overall economy recovers, in a typical dollar cycle, energy prices would look less like $30 a barrel and more like $90. That’s not going to happen anytime soon. Even commodities couldn’t be bought at the bottom. Wall Street has been leaned on to dress up dismal economic data, but it hasn’t been enough. Holding this position requires controlling sufficient weight to ride the momentum — perhaps even requiring some form of extraordinary intervention.
As elaborated in Introduction to Structural Studies: every theory ever developed in human society is merely a tool for survival and reproduction. Any explanatory framework about the future can be internally self-consistent. Yet every form of human social organization contains its own rationality. Only history possesses true adaptability — you sing the song suited to the mountain you’re on, and the strategy you use must match the stage you’re in. Today’s truth becomes tomorrow’s fallacy. The only constant is the survival competition every living organism engages in for continued existence, and the endless game played to secure the resources needed to persist.
Every word that follows is what I’d only tell someone I treat as my dearest kin — this is me speaking from the heart:
★ In times like these, there’s no need to let yourself get swept up in charged, heated emotions — and no need to argue yourself red in the face just to defend your personal views. Hold fast to your own morals and character. Cherish this land and the people around you — but don’t make a show of it or use it to define yourself. And right now, be careful with your words. Especially avoid expressing strong personal opinions to those around you. Know how to protect yourself. A gentle, measured response is almost always the best approach. Because you never truly know whether the person hearing your innermost thoughts is friend or foe, ally or enemy, honorable or small-minded. Your own views are yours alone — keep them buried deep inside. Knowing it yourself is enough. Don’t even tell the gods.
A minority controls capital and power. The majority believes it possesses public opinion and moral authority. So the majority perpetually tries to use those tools — public opinion and the moral high ground — to overturn the cage woven by capital and power. But here is the truth: the former is real; the latter is illusory. The masses believe they wield this illusory force, yet the outcome is always the same: manipulated by illusion, they become cannon fodder and enforcers — serving the very ends of power and capital they imagined they were opposing.
Today is the Lantern Festival. First, I wish all my brothers and sisters peace, joy, and smooth sailing in everything. And since it is the Lantern Festival, it also marks the true beginning of the new year.
Some of you are still feeling a little lost. You sense that this Year of the Wood Dragon may bring a gradual warming and renewal — yet you’re not quite sure what to do about it.
Messi’s snub of China was not a misunderstanding. It was deliberate — a declaration of allegiance, a statement of position, a pledge of loyalty. It reveals personal ambition and the clash of opposing camps.
The Argentines, in their pain and frustration, have chosen a path unlike any before — one actually tried across the former Soviet states in the 1990s. There is a specific term for it: shock therapy. We all know how that turned out. In the early stages, the internal economic spiral caused by currency instability and insufficient capital for consumption and production would be immediately halted. Argentina is a country rich in physical assets — to put it plainly, they have the resources. But the pricing power over those resources doesn’t belong to them.
Student Question: I’m based in Chengdu. Are apartment units in the southern part of the city worth investing in? Currently, apartment prices are fairly affordable — a unit with renovation comes to around 450,000 yuan total, with rental income of 2,000–2,400 yuan per month. To achieve the same rental return from a residential property, the total cost including renovation and various fees would be roughly three times that of an apartment. The money I have on hand is only enough for a down payment on residential housing. I also have concerns about residential properties being difficult to sell in the future. Apartment prices have dropped quite a bit compared to before, yet rents for well-located apartments have been rising year over year. I’d like to hear your thoughts, Master.