Today, an extraordinarily significant historical variable has emerged.
Hamas, the Palestinian militant organization, launched a massive surprise offensive against Israel. In an astonishingly short period of time, Hamas achieved simultaneous infiltration by land, sea, and air — while firing over 5,000 rockets in a coordinated barrage.
Strictly speaking, we are in all likelihood witnessing the opening of the Sixth Middle East War. As things stand, none of this has a direct bearing on us.
But with the Russia-Ukraine conflict already burning in the background, the picture changes entirely.
History has taught us something since the First World War: whenever two mid-scale hot wars burn simultaneously across the globe, the probability of major powers intervening directly — and ultimately triggering a full-scale world war — rises dramatically.
So consider the equation: Middle East War + Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Add any single uncontrolled flashpoint on top of that.
The possibility that we will find ourselves dragged — whether we like it or not — into a new reshuffling of the world order is very real.
Warning of a Third World War is the core point I want to make.
A few additional things worth noting:
1 — American congressional delegates arrived in China today. Alongside the series of American figures who have visited China in recent weeks, a clear pattern emerges: the administrative rank of each visitor has been steadily climbing.
2 — Multiple media outlets report that Hamas’s firepower and military capability in this offensive are unprecedented — far beyond what their own resources would suggest.
3 — The American system, in moments like this, is structurally compelled to massively redistribute its military resources among its allies.
4 — No matter how a world war evolves, no one in the tide of history can stand apart from it — especially not the top five players.
5 — Never underestimate the Middle East. It is an absolute graveyard. It drained the former Great Bear (the Soviet Union), and nearly broke the Bald Eagle.
6 — Perhaps at this very moment, the history books have already turned the page into a new chapter of “the Age of Chaos” — we just don’t know it yet.
7 — We should be grateful to live in a country that is peaceful, and that has the strength to protect that peace.
Finally, attached is a firsthand account written by a survivor of the Sarajevo siege in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
It is long and detailed — best read slowly, alone — but it will leave a lasting impression.