To be precise, it has been over half a year since I last wrote a grand strategy-level piece. The main reason is simply that on our side, there have not been any particularly noteworthy events worth discussing.
Of course, the various influencers who specialize in international geopolitics always find clever ways to turn minor topics into something dramatic. But anyone with clear eyes knows it is nothing more than blowing small things out of proportion for clicks.
Yet the balloon incident of the past few days has suddenly caught my full attention — because it is absolutely not as simple as the minor diplomatic squabble it appears to be. What makes this incident special is that it subtly reveals the reversal of a long-standing offensive and defensive framework.
Specifically: our device crossed the ocean for the first time, appearing over the Eagle’s territory — and it did so by passing through layers of protection and blockades. Truly unprecedented.
The reason I pay such close attention is simple. Countless historical records and declassified documents tell us in different ways that shifts in global power are never determined by the seemingly earth-shattering headlines. They are shaped, rather, by small, isolated events that accumulate piece by piece until they form an unstoppable force.
So, combining everything from the past five years with this balloon incident, I believe that certain major trends lurking beneath the surface will rise to the surface in the next great cycle. As for the outcome? For us, it will be optimistic.
Unlike others who churn out streams of obscure, impressively-worded pieces, when I write on grand strategy I prefer to cut straight to the key points rather than force-feeding you some high-sounding conclusive narrative. After all, we are all adults — some things do not need to be spelled out. Anyone with a bit of discernment can read between the lines.
The following observations are what I, Master Chi, personally consider quite important — things worth taking seriously:
1 — The biggest black swan on the world stage is that the Bear has been bogged down in this quagmire for so long. And from what we can see recently, it lacks the ability to extricate itself through its own efforts alone.
2 — The Bear has always maintained a rather proud posture in its relationships — even toward us. Yet this time it has been repeatedly and warmly making unusually intimate overtures in our direction.
3 — One must acknowledge that the Eagle and its circle have managed to bring things to this point without putting boots on the ground directly. That is, frankly, a bit more impressive than one might have expected.
4 — The curious thing is that the Bear’s father, thirty years ago, also seems to have fallen into a chronic state of weakness due to prolonged bloodlessness — and ultimately did not survive.
5 — The Eagle’s view of the Bear and its view of us are completely different. The Eagle regards the Bear as an enemy — meaning their conflict can only be resolved through iron and fire. The Eagle regards us as a rival — meaning it believes the relationship must never be allowed to deteriorate to that level. Multiple rounds of diplomatic talks have repeatedly made this clear on their initiative.
6 — Our growing strength in recent years is not reflected only on the ground — it is expressed across the seas and skies as well. Anyone with basic knowledge understands that our ground forces are primarily for homeland defense, while our naval and aerial capabilities are what protect our global interests.
7 — It is well known that aircraft carriers are major strategic weapons — instruments of national power designed for expansion, far exceeding their defensive utility, and built to be put to use one day. Like all components of air power, they were conceived from the start to advance an ambitious vision, not to serve as a hedge.
8 — The power of a string of pearls lies ultimately in each individual bead. Over these years, we have worked hard to ensure every bead is polished to exceptional quality.
9 — I have no intention of making any definitive predictions. The only thing I want to say is that we are far from the climax of this story. If this cycle were a 120-minute film, the world is currently in the 30-minute setup stage. The 90-minute climax is neither close nor impossibly far.
10 — Going forward, relationships between the key parties may undergo dramatic and unexpected shifts. Those we consider rivals may not actually come to open conflict. Those we consider friends may not prove fully trustworthy.
11 — If I were to rough-estimate a timeline, I believe tensions will continue to escalate within five years. Preparations should be made in advance: economic, personal, and material.
P.S.: After writing this piece, I expect it will be a long while before I revisit the topic of grand strategy — unless some particularly special event emerges worth discussing.
In the meantime, I hope everyone can draw their own conclusions from reading between the lines — avoiding both narrow thinking and unnecessary anxiety.
Make the necessary arrangements early. At the very least, have a complete contingency plan ready in your mind. That is the greatest act of care you can offer yourself and your family.
Of course, you are very welcome to share your own risk-mitigation and preparedness knowledge in the comments — it will surely make for fascinating reading.