Monday — let’s talk about something grand.
Note: this article has no answers. It is purely some personal reflections from someone with a modest understanding of world history who has achieved financial freedom.
So — read, think, leave a comment. Every step matters.
One more thing: every article I write has a target audience.
This one is written for the core guiding leader of every family. Meaning: if your parents or spouse are not the kind of people who engage in deep thinking and make decisions about the whole family’s direction, then you need to read this carefully. Every family needs a reliable guiding leader. That person is you.
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The vast majority of people have no macro understanding of the world. So they assume that the peaceful and prosperous era we live in today is simply the natural state of things.
But the reality is: if you were born in Africa, Central Europe, the Middle East, South America, or South Asia, war is something that virtually every household has experienced in the not-so-distant past — whether Cold War or hot war.
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Whether Cold War or hot war, no one who gets drawn in can remain on the sidelines, and no one can perfectly sidestep the risks. Any form of war results in destroyed homes, zeroed-out wealth, and catastrophically altered lives for massive numbers of people.
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Let me be clear once more: our homeland’s peace exists fundamentally because we are already strong enough — not because the East Asian region is particularly calm. Throughout history, every time China found itself in a position of weakness in the East Asian sphere, rivers of blood followed — because the Confucian structural foundation produces extremely high military organizational capacity. Any war machine in East Asia, once set in motion, can make conflicts in every other part of the world look like children’s games.
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So where do my concerns lie?
History has proven countless times that unilaterally pursuing peace is extremely difficult unless you hold an absolutely overwhelming advantage. And even then, once a genuine conflict of core interests emerges, the probability of war gradually increases.
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Never — never — think war is far from us, and never assume others treat the prospect of war with much caution. We perceive war as distant because peace has lasted so long; even the most recent of our founding wars is nearly thirty-plus years behind us. But even among the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council, none has truly stopped engaging in mid-level military conflicts.
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The Russo-Ukrainian conflict in Central Europe, combined with the warming-up of what could be a sixth Middle East war, has already been more than sufficient to fully ignite the entire world’s powder keg.
Speaking only for myself: the Eagle (the U.S.) could have pushed much harder with off-field support for its allied factions. The fact that it is now visibly restraining its bets is enough to reveal that its core intentions are fixed on something at a higher level.
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I deeply respect the words of the great leader: “Tactically, take the enemy seriously; strategically, hold the enemy in contempt.”
I don’t believe our strength, our standing, or our confidence is inferior to anyone’s. I remain optimistic. But that doesn’t mean I will ignore what is objectively unfolding.
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Looking at the trajectory of world development, there are several conditions that will inevitably lead to cold or hot conflict:
Either world power becomes interlocked among several strong major players, each holding roughly equal footing —
Or an international alliance fractures from within, where conflicting interests leave no option but war —
Or a powerful, momentum-driven new force emerges and begins to shake the hegemon’s position.
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I won’t be petty about it, but I don’t believe this era’s eruption of conflict will come with a “I saw it coming!” period of psychological preparation. Like a volcanic eruption — a peaceful mountain transformed in an instant into a catastrophic natural disaster — it could happen in the blink of an eye.
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There is, however, another possibility: that the two main protagonists in the world order each find their footing and enter a state of civilizational competition. I believe we have already done this. But those on the other side of the Pacific are clearly having difficulty accepting a shift from one-party dominance to a two-way, mutually prosperous arrangement.
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From a small aperture, you can see the whole. In late September I traveled across North America — Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York.
The overall impression: the prime districts are still lively, still alive with music and activity — very much the quintessentially American lifestyle of massive houses, thick steaks, and high-displacement vehicles. But vast swaths of the country have been hollowed out by rampant drug use and low-intensity crime.
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Note: I don’t believe North America’s drug epidemic and low-intensity crime will cause its immediate collapse.
But the only drug prohibition strategy that has ever succeeded in human history involved an extremely powerful armed force acting decisively to root out drugs entirely, setting aside procedural concerns. Yet in North America — whether in law, culture, society, or the will of the upper strata — there is no determination to do this. What exists instead is tolerance.
Drugs are a nation’s tumor: relatively easy to excise in the early stages, but once out of control, the outcome is death or permanent crippling. Drug prohibition is not a law enforcement issue — it is war.
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I’ve also, for professional reasons, had deep exposure to the manufacturing and industrial sectors in North America. Speaking only from my own perspective:
The industrial capacity of the US and Canada has, through habitual outsourcing, reached a point where domestic technical expertise faces a genuine risk of rupture. Although they still hold enormous advantages in core high-precision technology, the middle layer of applied technology has become massively disconnected — meaning the industrial chain is incomplete.
A rough analogy: they can precision-manufacture carrier engines of staggering sophistication, yet cannot efficiently and fully produce the rest of the components.
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Relatively public information: our 04 and 05 are already under construction. And the aircraft carrier, from the moment the first one was launched, has been an unspoken and unambiguous declaration of “pioneering strategic deployment.”
Put plainly: you build them to use them in the worst-case scenario. If there were any hint of submission, or any desire to play a supporting role, we would never have built even the 01.
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My personal sense is that this year and next, the world situation will continue to be messy and chaotic. But starting five years from now, there is potential for a final reckoning: we are a main protagonist on the world stage, and while we bear global responsibility, we will not allow others to cross the line — push further, and blows will follow.
No one — and I mean no one — can truly predict what will happen at that point, or what the final outcome will be. But the probability of this scenario is absolutely not low.
If you have even a passing understanding of world history and humanity’s thousands of years of development, you will grasp the weight of what I’m saying.
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Likewise, if you have sufficient knowledge of world history and enough real-world experience — say, having traveled to a wide range of countries — you will understand that peace is very much like air and water.
When you have it, you take it for granted. You think: isn’t this just how the whole world is?
But the moment you leave peace, even for five minutes, you’ll realize that nothing — nothing — matters more than surviving in a peaceful world.
The ancients had a saying that is absolutely right: “Better to be a dog in peaceful times than a person in an era of chaos.”
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As the guiding leader of my own family, and as a man, I’ve always had a deep personal interest in technical and engineering subjects: repair work, medicine, construction, communications, agriculture, chemistry, and more. I enjoy studying all of these in my spare time — genuinely fascinating stuff.
Skills never weigh you down. The biggest problem facing today’s white-collar workers is that their social relationships have become atomized and their personal capabilities have narrowed to a single track. Meaning: they live alone, have few friends, can barely do anything beyond typing on a keyboard and scrolling a phone screen.
That kind of life is not just deeply unhealthy — it’s dangerous, in multiple senses.
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Cherish the hard-won life we have now. Be genuinely grateful for our homeland’s protection — this comes straight from the heart.
I’m someone who can travel anywhere in the world at a moment’s notice, with no obligations tying me down. Yet look at my personal base: still right here in China, in Shanghai.
The reason is simple: no place is perfect. Even within our own country, you might get bitten by a dog, hit by a car, or encounter all manner of risks. But the overall safety level and quality of daily life — at least for me personally — is simply the best, with no close second.
Elsewhere? A month or two is fine. But long-term residence? It ultimately isn’t the most comfortable.