If a person cannot read the great tides of the era, they naturally cannot find their own path through life. After all, each of us ordinary people is nothing more than an utterly insignificant pawn on the chessboard of our times.
And yet, the true tide of the era is a strange force. It is silent much of the time — but if you truly listen, it speaks with a voice that shakes you to your core.
Note this: I don’t like shouting about trivial matters from the rooftops the way some internet celebrities do, drumming up grand spectacle from small things. Nor do I want to impose my subjective perspective on your thinking. I will speak only to certain objective realities. How much of the deeper meaning you draw from them depends entirely on your own understanding and knowledge.
1
What actually prompted me to write today’s article was this first point.
The Eagle’s House of Representatives recently passed a key military bill — one that overturns a fundamental policy that has been in place since 1973. It shifts from an all-volunteer military to a conscription system. In other words, it moves from citizens choosing to join the military voluntarily, to the government being able to compel eligible citizens to serve.
Some people say this is to counter the Bear. I cannot agree with that reading. Understand: the Eagle’s core military policy has always been the subject of its fiercest internal debate and most intense contradictions. The fact that this passed so clearly and decisively tells us one thing:
The Eagle is explicitly preparing for a war far larger in scale than the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
2
Do you remember, three or four years ago, how people online constantly talked about a concept called the Five Eyes Alliance? But if you’ve been following mainstream news this year, you’ll notice that the five eyes seem to no longer be aligned — or at least, that alliance isn’t as tight as it once was.
The most remarkable thing is this: the Five Eyes Alliance once looked like a solid iron block. Yet over the past two years, three of those five members seem to have begun proactively reaching out to us with gestures of de-escalation — even expressions of goodwill and respect.
This, however, follows the long-established pattern of global power dynamics: since the era of globalization, the world has consistently taken the shape of “two giants, many strong players.”
In today’s world, the protagonists are us — and them, on the other side of the Pacific. Everyone else plays an important supporting role — valuable, but not central.
3
A friend asked me: when does Season Three begin?
Honestly, I don’t know. Strictly speaking, there won’t be direct open warfare between the two giants — the cost would simply be too catastrophic.
But the other side of the Pacific is in a genuinely awkward position. They have already missed the optimal window to suppress us — which was roughly between 2010 and 2015. They lacked the strategic resolve to act then. Now, the reckless nerve for it is even further out of reach.
I am not a professional in weapons or military affairs — because war’s ecological niche, in the normal course of things, sits below economics. Almost every war in history, on the surface, looks like a clash of great generals, warriors, weapons, and strategy. But the fundamental force behind it is the contest of economic structures.
Why did the Eagle hold back until the second half of World War II before entering the global conflict? Because at that moment, its industrial output represented roughly half of the world’s total. Where it stood determined the balance of the world.
In the same way, we today are the world’s undisputed industrial champion — with industrial output, steel production, cement production, and ship-launch tonnage accounting for the overwhelming majority of global totals. That kind of productive capacity, combined with a population this organized, is power.
4
I said in a previous article: the defining theme of the era ahead is a prolonged, enduring contest.
A prolonged contest means there will be smiling faces and flashes of anger along the way — but at the level of fundamental interests, it is very difficult to truly set aside the disputes. Because at this stage, we have each touched the other’s core interests. Neither side has any room to retreat.
Think back to when we first joined the WTO. The Eagle and the West had a simple expectation for us: stay in our lane, do basic cheap light manufacturing and low-grade heavy industry, be a good younger brother doing contract processing, and be content with that. They wanted us to remain, generation after generation, cheap and crude low-tier producers.
And at the time, that opportunity was genuinely precious to us — so we accepted it.
What they didn’t expect: the young apprentice, through decades of accumulated technical experience, somehow became the master craftsman. These Chinese people — through sheer effort — completed round after round of technological progress, infrastructure upgrades, economic system development, and advances in civilian, military, and scientific research?
Wait — these Chinese people now possess the capability to contend for a place in the world order? What happened to that frail, struggling young apprentice from before?
5
I have a strong distaste for people who, in daily life, understand the world only through narrow information channels.
The world is vast. The various forces at play are far more complex than most people imagine. But if we take the macro view:
There are only two protagonists under heaven.
This naturally means that throughout this prolonged contest, no one on either side will feel truly comfortable or at ease.
6
From point 4, you can already understand why the past 40 years were actually a miraculous moment — not the normal state of affairs.
Because there will never be a second country in the world like ours: possessing a population of such exceptional diligence and quality, a geographic position connecting westward to Europe and eastward to the Pacific, and strategic planning that has been both wise and effective.
In recent years, India and Vietnam have each tried to take our place. But unable means unable.
They have ambition too — but India’s historical structure and extreme climate, and Vietnam’s scale and geography, set a ceiling that is simply too low.
Let me be clear: I am not a narrow-minded nationalist. I believe every people in every part of the world has its own exceptional qualities. I have lived abroad for many years and have encountered many highly talented people of Indian origin.
But whether a nation can rise — talent matters enormously, but it still cannot be separated from the alignment of timing and geography, like links in a chain. Every link is indispensable.
And we — we seized ours.
7
Today’s article won’t get into personal effort and individual choices — too many threads tangled together, and it’s easy for things to blur.
But I do hope you understand: what matters most right now is maintaining emotional clarity, physical health, and career stability. Wait for the right moment. Wait for change. Wait for great fortune.
No rush. No anxiety.
If you are my closest brothers and sisters, I would also urge you: build and strengthen your physical fitness; master fluent communication in a foreign language; learn practical skills in medicine, auto mechanics, electrical work, and the like; and make thorough financial plans — avoid waste, and never squander.
Beyond that, make it a daily habit to stay in close contact with family members, friends, and classmates who are genuinely trustworthy people. Encourage each other, beyond casual conversation, to develop and master practical, professional life skills.
I’ll leave it there — I won’t expand further.
But if you can read between the lines, it means your perceptiveness is exceptionally sharp — especially when you connect the dots to everything that has been happening lately…
For that reason, more specific — and more critical — core guidance is shared here only: