Let me share my personal view upfront: this morning’s eight bullets, though they failed to hit Trump, have in all likelihood dealt a fatal blow to the prospects of global peace.
Because of this event, Trump has a very high probability of locking up the presidency early. And the American hawks will use this moment to rise decisively.
Here is the logic behind that:
1. At 6:58 AM China time this morning, Trump was shot at during a campaign rally. The attacker failed — only grazing Trump’s right ear. Strictly speaking, this does not look like a staged event. The bullet did in fact hit his right ear, and had there been any slight variation, a shot to the center of the forehead would not have been impossible. The person Trump should thank most may well be his own habit of bobbing and swaying his head whenever he speaks.
2. In the immediate aftermath of the attack, Trump’s commanding display won him enormous recognition and support across America in an instant. North American public opinion has been overwhelmingly praising his response — which further widens the gap between him and Biden.
3. Many people don’t fully grasp the real value of the American presidency and the enormous influence it carries. The American president is, in a sense, the shared figurehead of the entire Western world — a representative of the doves and hawks behind the scenes, of international capital versus domestic power. Strictly speaking, the American president represents different interests at different moments in Western history. So when Biden took office, the entire Western trajectory shifted toward expanding international capital, advancing political correctness, and empowering the left. But if Trump takes office, it will inevitably strengthen America’s traditional capital, the military-industrial complex, heavy industry, conservatism, and the right.
4. If Trump wins this time, we will with high probability face a competitor with an extremely aggressive governing style — one who is exceptionally skilled at high-pressure offensives. The moment he holds both military and political power as president, he will almost certainly create further negative headwinds for us during certain periods.
5. So is this good news or bad news? In truth, it is bad in the short term but good in the long term. This comes down to one crucial insight: Trump’s aggression is not directed only at China — it is directed at all of America’s allies as well. During his previous term as president, his “America First” doctrine had already damaged a vast number of alliance relationships and other international ties. He may have won short-term gains for America, but he paid for them by eroding American cohesion.
6. This is precisely why, during the 2016–2020 period of his presidency, our foreign relationships made enormous strides and achieved significant results. And while America carried itself with intense swagger and hostility at the time, the internal solidarity of its alliances was strikingly poor — to the point where Germany and France expressed profound frustration with Washington. Even pro-China communities within Japan and South Korea became noticeably more active. Since Biden took office, the dynamics have shifted considerably.
7. Strictly speaking, as a competitor, Trump is far less sophisticated than Biden in the arena of international relations. Biden is more skilled at the indirect, tactful, and outwardly civil approach — quietly and precisely creating obstacles for us. Trump prefers to throw straight punches, even when those punches frequently hit his own teammates and cause them real losses.
8. Going forward, the relationship between our two sides will become more direct and transparent. The core points of contention will become clearer. And yet — time is still on our side, however difficult the road ahead remains.
Note: many people still don’t understand why the macro-level shifts of recent years have been so sweeping. A brief summary: during 2016–2020, the American Eagle, following the South China Sea standoffs and subsequent escalating frictions, fundamentally revised its view of us. They understood that the Chinese people are qualitatively different from every competitor they had ever faced before. We possess a military force of sufficient scale and technological capability to truly contend with theirs. We maintain composed, expansive international diplomatic relationships. And we have a commercial structure of enormous scale. We are not the kind of presence that can be easily subdued or neutralized. In both wisdom and strength, we carry more than enough conviction. We are different from the “regional competitors” they faced in the past — we hold the genuine ability and potential to contend with them across every domain. While raw paper statistics may still favor them, the real cost of actually moving to contain us is something they, too, cannot bear.
9. All the answers about the future will ultimately reveal themselves the moment the American presidential seat is decided. If Trump returns to the presidency, the smell of gunpowder — driven by his approach — will grow to a terrifying intensity. A world aflame with conflict may be closer to us than we think.
My only wish: may the world remain at peace.