Note: All content in this article reflects personal analysis for reference only, and does not constitute any form of recommendation.
This article is deliberately concise and direct, organized into three parts: 1 — My read on the current state of the big casino; 2 — The fundamentals you absolutely must master; 3 — Where are the best entry points from here?
Look at those so-called market gurus who were just confidently declaring “value investing never dies” — they must be feeling thoroughly embarrassed right now. They deserve significant credit for trapping so many young people and newcomers in these funds. When someone enters a new field, nothing matters more than whether they’ve properly understood its foundational logic. It’s like basic skills — if the people you’re learning from don’t teach real technique, you will absolutely be led astray. That’s exactly why I find it baffling when these people start chanting the same chorus of “conviction,” “persistence,” and “holding firm.” Since when did the capital game degenerate into emotional gambling? Capital has no emotions. It always operates by its own logic, moving along hidden currents beneath the surface. Our wealth is the reward for unraveling those currents and finding the answer.
Part 1: My Read on the Current State of the Big Casino#
The best attitude toward the broader market right now is to stop obsessing over it — stop telling yourself “this is the bottom, this is the bottom, this is the bottom.” Don’t delude yourself, and don’t be seduced by those distractions. Especially those voices saying this theme looks good, or that thing is worth watching — you can listen, you can reference, but don’t blindly believe all of it.
Overall, the timing isn’t ripe yet. Any profit you’re making right now is the result of “luck + skill.”
Remember how I kept warning everyone that around 3800 would bring a “major kill”? I explained it many times, but some people still didn’t get it. Plainly put, there are two reasons:
1 — We’re approaching April, which means annual report season for every table in this casino. Given last year’s conditions, do you think the picture is going to look pretty? Expect a wave of compressed margins and surging debt loads.
2 — The major funds that began positioning from mid-last year have already harvested enormous wealth and spectacular returns in this rally. There’s no reason for them to squeeze out the very last copper coin. Protecting current gains and waiting for the next low — that’s their current posture. If you have the connections, go talk to some fund managers at public or private firms. Which one of them is rushing to bet right now? They’re all sharp as foxes, holding out until after April.
These two points also explain why, despite the market taking such a beating lately, there’s been no real buying power stepping in to absorb it.
Don’t rush. Whatever you do, don’t let one or two beautiful days go to your head. At minimum, let this annual report release period pass, then find your moment to enter. That’s what a seasoned player does — and a seasoned investor needs to be even more composed than a seasoned gambler.
Part 2: The Fundamentals You Must Master#
Master Chi doesn’t like making simple things complicated. The more complex it gets, the less meaningful it becomes — you won’t remember it and you won’t see through it. I firmly believe in simplifying complexity. Once you’ve grasped the core essentials, many things will naturally click into place. Here are the most absolutely critical fundamentals:
1 — Deep Immersion and Accumulation
Cooking a meal is easier than reading a casino, right? But would you walk into a restaurant kitchen and tell the head chef how to cook? Of course not — because you know his experience and process are beyond question. What does he rely on? The accumulated experience of cooking thousands upon thousands of dishes every single day — hot station, cold station, prep, sourcing, technique — all of it fed by time.
Same logic applies here. To make a living at this casino, even the gifted need “a full year before finding the door,” and ordinary people need “three years just to touch the doorframe” — and that’s under conditions of daily, high-intensity engagement.
If you can’t manage that, here’s a shortcut: pick one lane you know well and stay in it. Don’t switch tracks for no reason.
Haven’t you noticed? The real masters and experts who’ve made it in this field all have their lanes — the liquor crowd, the pharma crowd, the tech crowd, the materials crowd, the short-term traders, and so on. Whatever sector made you money and felt right, stay there. Quietly embrace the grind. Don’t go wandering into other circles. Just digest every single piece of information that sector puts out, every day — absorb it deeply, process it thoroughly.
2 — Lift Your Head and Watch the World
You cannot survive in this game without deep engagement with news, media, public opinion, gossip, and even rumors. I have a particular aversion to people who walk around with the attitude of “I never make mistakes, my judgment is always right.” This is a world that changes by the second — isn’t it better to know more, to have more reference points?
Unfortunately, this holds true in every field: the lower-tier, unexposed types tend to radiate a mysteriously unshakeable confidence. Shallow ponds breed plenty of small kings.
For what it’s worth, I have never once met anyone with nine-figure wealth in this circle who carries that “I’m number one under heaven” attitude. Not hot money traders, not market makers, not the daredevil squads, not the scythes, not the public or private funds. None of them.
It’s like playing cards or mahjong at a table — keeping your head down and grinding blindly is practically suicide. Other people’s states are sometimes written right on their faces. Not looking is a waste.
3 — Get Your Cause-and-Effect Logic Straight
One of the most astonishing things I’ve ever heard: in 2015, a vast number of people actually believed, “The great market maker in the sky will come rescue the market!”
???????
Allow me a few more question marks. ??????????
On what basis? Why would anyone come to rescue the market? To this day I cannot figure it out.
If you lose money at a Macau casino, does the floor manager hand you chips because he feels sorry for you? If a patron loses at the table, does the house have an obligation to make up his losses?
Remember this: this is a naked capital game. Every person, every faction, is here for two simple, pure words — to extract money. Where do you think all the salaries and operating costs of the brokerage platforms come from? Powered by love?
So never be naive enough to harbor illusions like — because something is being “supported,” it will do well; because something is being “backed,” it will be lifted up. Everything — absolutely everything — must be built on one single foundation: “Doing this is profitable.”
“The only reason chips get pushed onto the table is to bring back more chips.”
Those are the three fundamentals. In the world of capital, their weight is no less than the Three Laws of Physics.
Part 3: The Best Entry Points Going Forward#
1 — Three Consecutive Days of Large Bullish Candles (+1.5% or More)
They must be consecutive — three trading days in a row. At absolute minimum, three such days within five trading sessions. That’s the floor.
Remember: retail money is the easiest to harvest, because retail traders have no logic and no memory. I said earlier, “No matter how bad the drop, they’ll forget within two weekends.” Look around now — hasn’t that been confirmed completely?
The moment the broader market strings together three consecutive +1.5% days, the whole table comes alive. Every kind of logic, opinion, and viewpoint will emerge — and every single one will sound self-consistent.
Look back at every bull market and major rebound in history. Everything else is noise, everything else is illusion. Three large bullish candles are the cleanest, most unambiguous signal there is. Because it means someone is genuinely putting real money in. Nothing beats that.
2 — Mid-to-Late Stage of the April Annual Report Concentration Period
Big money isn’t stupid. It absolutely will not go heavy into any position at the early stage of annual report season. No point — far too dangerous.
Have you noticed? The vast majority of market themes and narratives begin fermenting and being positioned in May and June. Precisely because annual reports come out around April.
Bad annual report? Doesn’t matter — thanks to various factors last year, this year we’re turning over a new leaf, the macro environment is completely different now!
Good annual report? Even better — ride the momentum, aim for sector leadership, become an industry champion!
Once the annual reports are out, storytelling has a foundation. Without them, the scriptwriters have no direction.
3 — Broader Market at 3350–3200
Don’t take these numbers at face value — you have to understand what I mean by them.
Just as I didn’t believe the market could break through 3800, and it duly fell from 3731 — the current market, barring surprises, will find a drop to 3300 quite painful, and reaching 3200 genuinely difficult.
The reason: the chips that needed to exit have mostly exited. The ones that haven’t are just lazily hanging on.
That said, I won’t speak in absolutes. The current environment is full of variables, and it doesn’t look like “consecutive major positive surprises” will materialize in the next two to three months.
I’ll also acknowledge: Master Chi produced a “failed case” in the last wave. Around 3731, I did pull out my full position and left only net profits inside — but this downdraft still shrank those profits considerably. What could have been a clean 30% net return in two months fell short, purely because of hesitation. I couldn’t execute perfectly.
A lesson for myself: “When retreating, don’t hesitate — don’t try to squeeze out the very last coin. When building a position, don’t rush — move in steps, don’t strain yourself.”
To sum up those three points: don’t get itchy hands in the near term. Wait and watch what unfolds in April and May. When you’re around 3200, and you start seeing a few consecutive days of +1.5% signs — that’s when it’s time to sharpen your focus and watch the table.
At least personally, I’ll begin building positions somewhere in the 3350–3200 range. Note: this is purely my personal operation. You may use it as a reference, but make your own judgment call.
Closing Thoughts#
For now, the three points above are the most critical considerations for this stage. As long as you have a firm grip on the major opportunities, you won’t miss them — and the major risks basically won’t touch you either.