When it comes to stock trading, I’ve always considered myself lucky — not because I’ve made a fortune through blind luck in this hunting ground, but because I was fortunate enough, quite early on and quite by chance, to see through its fundamental nature completely.
This was about twenty years ago. My family had a reasonably solid financial foundation at the time, so I often had dealings — both professional and personal — with some of the earliest generation of red-vested floor brokers.
Though these veterans weren’t particularly prominent when they were at their trading posts, they held one decisive advantage: they were present, from the very beginning, as the entire casino’s written and unwritten rules were being forged and established.
They were like the veteran croupiers of Macau — they understood the true operating logic of the entire system, inside and out.
Today, these veterans have long since entered the arena themselves. Armed with their unique networks and resources, they’ve become deep-sea leviathans hidden beneath the surface. And yet, almost without exception, they hold the vast majority of academic and analytical schools of thought in complete contempt.
The most classic — and most dismissive — line among them is this: Only fools without connections waste their time trying to solve the puzzle. Smart people go straight to the answer key.
If you can’t get hold of the answer key, it means nobody around you has it either — which means they’re all useless. Your real job is to figure out how to get into the circles where the answers actually exist.
The shortcut. It’s really that simple.
Now go back and think about what I just said — “these veterans have become deep-sea leviathans hidden beneath the surface” — and suddenly everything becomes clear.
Just yesterday, the Grand Helmsman’s wife made a few remarks expressing what she called her “personal views.” The entire casino immediately lit up green, and many people were left utterly confused, unable to make sense of it.
Today I’m not going to spell out the answer directly. I’ll simply walk you through the deeper logic of this hunting ground — this great prairie. How much you take from it depends entirely on your own insight.
But promise me this: if you’re going to enter this arena, make sure you can understand at least half of what I’m about to say.
I mean it. This is for your own good.
Tengri: The Highest Power
At the highest level, Tengri — the sky itself — doesn’t actually care about the killing and capturing that happens on the prairie below. Whether the sheep are taken by wolves, or a great tiger scatters the wolf pack, none of it concerns Tengri.
There is only one thing it cares about: that this great prairie, this hunting ground, continues to exist — that all its creatures keep multiplying and thriving.
What it wants is prosperity, development, stability, and continuity.
In this sense, think of it as Macau. Macau doesn’t care which family holds which of the eight gaming licenses — whether it’s the Ho family or the Lui family — what matters is that the rules of the game remain intact and everyone can keep playing for the long haul.
The Nine Dragons: Princes of the Sky
The dragon fathers nine sons, and no two sons are alike. These nine dragons are the sons of Tengri.
I realize I’m mixing two different cultural traditions here, but the core idea I want to convey is this: in most circumstances, Tengri cannot and should not directly influence the climate and atmosphere of the great prairie. So what happens?
A few dragon-princes are always circling in the sky above, entrusted with bringing the rain, stirring the wind, and summoning the thunder — on Tengri’s behalf.
Rain. Wind. Thunder. That’s an interesting image, isn’t it?
To the common creatures below, the dragon-princes still seem impossibly distant — but at least you can occasionally catch a glimpse of them if you look up.
In market terms, it’s the hundred-billion-yuan tickets where you’re most likely to spot them. They often directly define the theme and weather of an entire short cycle.
The Tigers: The Pinnacle of the Possible
The tiger represents the absolute ceiling of what an ordinary creature on the prairie can evolve into. Reaching this level requires genius-level insight and truly extraordinary, unrepeatable opportunities — yet among a population of over a billion, a handful of rare examples do exist.
But broadly speaking, when the wind rises and the rain falls, the tigers are the ones most capable of riding that momentum and shaking the whole landscape.
For ordinary creatures who want to move with the current and fish in troubled waters, the lesson is clear: watch the tigers, not the dragons.
Tigers generally have no interest in the sheep, horses, and cattle of the common herd. Their prey is the wolf pack — and not out of any compassionate nature. It’s pure economics: the wolf pack is already full of beef and mutton, making it the most efficient meal available.
Tigers tend to appear most often in the tens-of-billions range, making them easier to observe and follow.
The Wolf Packs: The Local Predators
Why “wolf packs”? Because the tickets in the ten-to-hundred-billion range are exactly what wolf packs love to target — assets with enough size to be worth hunting, but vulnerable enough to be raided by those with limited but real firepower.
Look around your city. Those so-called “capital tycoons,” the ones who talk about running operations and making markets — these are your wolf-pack-level players. They seem formidable to the sheep and horses, but in the true great prairie, they’re living on borrowed time.
Generally speaking, either you’re fully committed to gambling against a market mover, or you’re chasing a hyped-up stock for an all-or-nothing play. Otherwise, wolf packs rarely have the capacity to move big-cap names.
And precisely because of their greed and desperation, wolf packs tend to operate without restraint — playing market maker and harvesting retail in ways that flagrantly disregard regulations or any sense of decorum.
Take my advice: wolf-pack operations never have staying power. Unless you’re approaching this with near-professional discipline, don’t let your heart race just because you caught wind of a hot stock. It’s not worth it.
Common Beings: The Rest of Us
This is where you and I fit in — ordinary investors, cautious yet hoping to profit, confused yet desperate for a logical framework that explains everything.
Here’s the honest truth: you must accept reality as it is. On this prairie, there is no single strategy, no universal playbook that wins every time. There never has been, and there never will be.
As common beings, we cannot afford to trap ourselves inside any theory — no matter how golden its reputation or how timeless its principles.
If you’re going to enter this space, the most basic — the absolute minimum — level of awareness you need is this: treat it as a hunting ground with no floor and no rules.
If you prefer value investing, focus on large-cap undervalued names.
If you prefer living on the edge, follow the mid-cap market-mover stocks.
But never forget — always return to the single most important question, the one that must never leave your mind:
Who is the market mover’s harvest target right now? Am I entering alongside it to help harvest others — or am I the one being harvested?
That question deserves your deepest attention, every day, every minute, every second.
Because on the real prairie, every living creature exists somewhere between eating and being eaten.
Making sure you’re not the one being eaten — that’s all that matters.
As for me personally, I’ve slipped away from the great prairie for now — temporarily. I’m mostly waiting for the broader market to stabilize a bit before wading back in.
If you’re currently heavily positioned, all I can say is: don’t let your mindset deteriorate. This stretch may drag on for a little while, but the overall picture isn’t alarming. Don’t get anxious — impatience is exactly how you get hurt the moment you finally get out.