Note: If you don’t have the patience to read through the entire article, skip to the end and look at Master Chi’s personal position layout. A year from now, you’ll thank me.
What follows is dedicated to all my brothers and sisters who suffered heavy losses in this great market upheaval:
When you’re riding a winning streak, that is precisely when you are most at risk. In those moments, everything you do feels unquestionably right. You become so certain of yourself that you can’t tolerate a single word of caution from anyone else.
Then, victory by victory, you grow more and more stubborn and arrogant — until finally, the blind confidence born of success leads you straight into a trap that, had you been thinking clearly, you could have easily sidestepped.
Remember this: victory is a terrifying thing. Like failure, it has the power to corrode the human spirit. The difference is this — failure erodes your confidence and mental strength; success erodes your rationality and self-reflection.
This is why those who truly go the distance are all skilled at slapping themselves — and genuinely welcome being proven wrong by others.
The reason is simple: being criticized doesn’t matter. Who hasn’t taken a few harsh words in their lifetime? But if the person criticizing you actually helps you identify your mistakes and blind spots, then they’re doing you a favor with bad intentions — they’re the one who woke you up, and that makes them your benefactor.
The reason Master Chi has taken care to write this for you is this: every brother and sister who failed to exit in time during this upheaval made the same simple mistake — the arrogance born of a winning streak caused you to lose your rationality.
I still remember — when the entire market began to take off in the second half of last year, led by the fifteen sector leaders, people were still rational, still cautious.
But by year-end and the days leading up to Chinese New Year, everyone had been completely brainwashed by the noise and rumors into becoming devoted disciples of “value investing.”
Every conversation insisted that the logic behind the top baijiu stock could never be broken, and that the major funds and private equity firms weren’t idiots — they would only buy the most stable and profitable shares.
What caused this shift in you?
Two words: self-interest.
Looking back now, you’ll realize that in the beginning, you weren’t all that convinced by the concept of “value investing” — especially in this particular market.
But once you were in the game, your profits became the most convincing proof. They shattered your doubts again and again, until you became a true believer.
After half a year of immersion, you completely surrendered to and pledged loyalty to a logic that, as we can now see, has been utterly shattered.
And it was precisely at this point that you lost the most important weapons in any market game: doubt and vigilance.
This is exactly why, when I first proposed the three warning lines, the comments and feedback were almost universally dismissive:
“3800? Are you out of your mind? The top baijiu stock is roaring and the other sector leaders are charging ahead — 4000 minimum! What a small-minded take. Who says Chinese New Year is the turning point? The big fund managers are all visionaries playing the long game — what do you know? What does the American market have to do with us? Sounds like you’ve been brainwashed by the Americans.”
Then, just a week ago, a dramatic reversal appeared:
“It actually crashed right around 3800? How did you call that? (The index peaked at 3731, just 69 points short.) The top baijiu stock and the other sector leaders were all dumped by big money — where did you get your information? One tremor in the US market and we got hammered the next day — so there really is a connection?”
Suddenly, countless people expressed admiration.
Truly, there’s no need. Master Chi doesn’t deserve that kind of reverence — because in reality, you yourself are fully capable of making the exact same judgments.
You only need to ask yourself one single, beautifully simple question:
At what point of profit will they stop?
Elevate that question one step further: at what level will they abandon the game of hot potato and exit with their profits intact?
It really is that simple. No other thinking is required. Analyzing individual stocks, evaluating their fundamentals and internal logic — that deserves maybe three parts of your energy, no more.
The one thing truly worth seven parts of your energy is just two words: follow the dragon.
Who is the dragon? The architects of this market narrative — the players who move the tides and set the momentum.
The undisputed lead players this time — the major funds and private equity firms — have already captured 40–50% returns on positions worth tens to hundreds of billions, from the 2800 level to where we are now.
What more do they need? What more could they want?
And you’ve seen the result: “making money” was always the objective, so naturally, once they had it, they left. No reasoning or logic matters more than “lock in the profits.”
Under this logic, isn’t it fairly easy to derive a rough profit exit line?
3800 — that’s where it came from.
Of course, Master Chi wants to make this clear: this time, I simply happened to guess right. This does not constitute any kind of advice.
Think of us as two gamblers walking into the casino hand in hand. I would never advise you on any specific move. At most, I’ll share “my personal thoughts — take it or leave it.”
After all, your chips, your wealth, your hard-earned money — no one can make decisions for you.
Just these past two days, the brothers and sisters around me have been asking curiously: if it were me, when would I re-enter the game?
Let me give a brief summary — I won’t go into the detailed logic and analysis, as that’s content exclusively for members of my community:
For me to reload and re-enter with full force, three conditions must be met:
At least three consecutive days of broad-based gains across thousands of stocks, with the index rising over 2%.
Four or five of the fifteen sector leaders rebounding strongly together, or the brokerages and banks staging a broad, sustained reversal with consecutive limit-up moves.
When public discourse stops mentioning the major funds and private equity firms altogether.
At least two of these three conditions must be met. When that happens, that’s my signal to go back in.
How is this logic constructed?
Don’t overthink it. Set aside all the flashy technical analysis and number games. Focus on human nature itself, and the answers aren’t hard to find. You can do this.
P.S. What has pleased me most during this period is the exceptional caliber of the brothers and sisters who have joined my community.
By “caliber,” I don’t simply mean net worth — I mean their values, awareness, perspective, and depth of understanding are all superb.
At the end of the day, these are intelligent people who have let go of dogma and embraced objective rationality.
So if you believe you embody this kind of character, Master Chi welcomes your joining. If not, it simply means our paths haven’t aligned yet — and perhaps one day they will.