No — they are the true signals of a great transformation descending upon us. — Master Chi
If you want to develop sharp insight into the grand currents of world affairs, your best move is to stop staring at those hyped-up, sensationalist media accounts that pump content straight into your brain all day long.
Because every word they write has been deeply processed with one purpose: to ignite your emotions, make you lose your reason, and drag you completely into the biases they’ve pre-set for you.
So whenever something happens that could genuinely shake the world order, I never blindly let those feverish writers pull my thinking off course. I hold firm to official sources and refuse to spread rumors.
After that, I carefully discuss the potential butterfly effects of each event with a few friends who genuinely operate at higher levels of understanding.
Only by doing this can your big-picture worldview remain comprehensive, rational, mature, and free from extremism. And only this way can you clearly judge — amid the rise and fall of world affairs — how you, as a small existence in this vast world, should better position yourself and prepare before the storm arrives.
I still remember that in my last article on world affairs, I said that unless something truly extraordinary happened, I wouldn’t be writing major macro pieces in the short term.
But I simply couldn’t resist the warm anticipation from readers in the comments, hoping I’d add a few more thoughts. Given your enthusiasm, it would be rather unreasonable of me to keep holding back. So today, I’ll pick out a few key points and write this companion piece.
Of course, if some things seem only half-said, please understand — it’s not that I’m being deliberately vague. Some things simply cannot be spoken too plainly.
It’s like that line in my favorite film, The Sun Also Rises: “You can say you didn’t understand it, but you cannot say you didn’t see it.”
1 - The world’s main storyline is currently in a chapter called The Roaring Bear. Barring extreme surprises, this chapter has quite a while left to play out.
From an interests perspective, this is absolutely good news for us — because the longer this chapter runs, the more prepared we’ll be when we eventually face off against the White Eagle.
I believe our generation must clearly understand: never in history has a shift in world dominance occurred without some form of conflict. Of course, we don’t hope to see smoke and fire — but we should at least face it without fear.
2 - Personally, I’ve never felt any particular warmth or hostility toward the Giant Bear. In the past, present, and future, it is destined to play the role of a “valuable supporting character” — and it has fully demonstrated both the good and the bad of that value.
My attitude toward its future is nuanced. Human history has validated one formula countless times: no matter how powerful a force may be, it cannot withstand prolonged dual bloodletting from economic and trade strangulation. The longer this continues, the worse the situation becomes.
Like a mighty warship — no matter how imposing its cannons and armor, without fuel and ammunition, it will gradually lose all fighting capacity, eventually becoming nothing more than an impressive-looking backdrop.
3 - Objectively speaking, we must recognize that the world’s resources, territory, and distribution of interests have always been finite.
Note this: as someone who has traveled abroad for many years, with footprints across most major countries, my personal view is that their elite class has never harbored any genuine, heartfelt goodwill toward us. What we saw was more often purposeful assistance that served their own interests.
So why has the attitude of many golden-haired, blue-eyed acquaintances grown increasingly cold — even hostile — toward us in recent years? Because our development in commerce, technology, and military has made them realize: “Wait a moment — this little brother from the third world, the one we had making slippers, pencils, and toilet paper for us — how does he now deserve to stand on equal footing with me?”
4 - From the perspective of world history, almost all powerful civilizations that truly sought to establish themselves on the world stage could never get there purely by playing the “nice guy.”
Whether in diplomacy, perception, authority, or reputation — every aspect of how you’re seen by the world ultimately requires a “battle to establish your standing.” This battle may take the form of winning without firing a shot, or it may involve real smoke and fire — but its essence is unchanging. It’s simply a matter of cold war or hot conflict.
I’ll say it again: “An aircraft carrier is by nature a strategic offensive weapon — from the moment its blueprints were drawn, it was built to win.” I urge you to read that sentence several times over.
5 - Honestly speaking, we are a civilization that genuinely loves peace. Every external arrangement from 1949 to today, and every move being made now, carries the steadiness and grand vision characteristic of Eastern wisdom.
In other words: always gracious in manner, always sincerely hoping to achieve mutual benefit with everyone — while absolutely refusing to yield a single step on core interests.
So even when the Roaring Bear chapter concludes years from now, and it becomes our turn to take center stage as the undisputed lead, I remain firmly confident that the situation won’t give us too much cause for worry. In gaming terms: we’ll definitely be able to hold the battle line.
6 - One additional point worth making: for years, many people have felt that our external environment is hostile — as if we’re the isolated kid in the classroom.
In reality, since 2010, as globalization was fully completed and competition for finite resources emerged, the several big kids in the classroom haven’t gotten along well with each other either. The three blond ones in particular maintain only surface-level harmony beneath their polite smiles — one accustomed to bullying others, one a natural troublemaker, and one who is actually quite rational and keeps to himself.
And if you have the ability to read in multiple languages, you’ll find that everyone has their own problems. Especially in recent years — everyone seems a bit preoccupied with their own affairs.
Looking at ourselves by comparison: perfection is impossible, of course. But relatively speaking, our challenges amount to something like “shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development.” So our good fortune still holds. There’s no need for excessive worry.
7 - Facing complex issues, having multiple voices is completely normal — and it’s precisely because of those different voices that we’re able to think from more comprehensive angles. This is a wonderful thing.
But for some reason, in recent years, the vast majority of people have become more rigid in their own opinions.
I don’t speak for others — but for you, I simply want to offer a word of advice as a trusted friend: on any matter, listen more and speak less, think more and worry less. Watch quietly for a while as things develop, let the bullets fly for a few days, and then decide your final position. This is the true thinking logic of someone who accomplishes great things.
And most importantly: never doubt, and never underestimate our own ability to read the macro situation and handle each event as it comes.
In places you cannot see, there truly is a group of extraordinarily wise and sharp-minded elites working to handle every plan and decision in the most thorough way possible.
Many things — at first glance, their power is invisible. Only years later, looking back, do you realize: this was truly the great sound that goes unheard, the great form that goes unseen — an inner depth of strength that defies imagination.
The above is a reflection I arrived at only after experiencing many things and meeting many people.
Alright — with this piece written, I truly won’t be producing Macro-Level Principles again for a while. Talking too much at once is actually counterproductive to growth.
Wait a little while. When the signs of many things begin to show themselves, look back at every word I’ve written today — and you’ll smile knowingly, realizing that genuine top-tier macro thinking, when the mind is clear, truly needs only a few words to cut straight to the heart of the matter.
And that — is what real mastery looks like.